BNP Puts a 399-Dollar Target on Nebius and Prices AI Cloud at 40 Million Dollars a Megawatt

BNP has upgraded Nebius (NBIS) to Outperform and raised its price target to 399 dollars, modelling more than 22 billion dollars in exit-2027 annualised recurring revenue, according to the Venture channel. The bank's stated basis is AI cloud pricing moving toward 40 million dollars per megawatt.

BNP's argument is that with Meta and Microsoft largely ramped by early 2027, the economics of incremental capacity reset sharply higher, with Nvidia's Vera Rubin generation adding a further leg.

The unit that matters is the megawatt, not the chip

The interesting number here is not the price target. It is that a major bank is now modelling AI cloud revenue per megawatt of power, and putting 40 million dollars a year against it.

That is the tell for how this industry has been re-classified. Capacity is no longer rationed by how many accelerators a provider can buy — it is rationed by how much power can be delivered to a site and how fast. Revenue per megawatt is the metric you build when power, not silicon, is the binding constraint.

Why an Ethiopian reader should care about a megawatt price

Because Ethiopia sells megawatts. A country with surplus hydro generation and an explicit ambition to export power now has a published benchmark for what that power is worth when it is converted into compute on site rather than sold across a border at a wholesale tariff.

The gap between those two numbers is the entire argument for domestic data-centre capacity, and it is now a number someone else has written down. What Ethiopia does not yet have on the same page is the network latency, the equipment import terms and the settlement arrangements that would let anyone actually capture it.

Open

fact.et has not seen BNP's note. The figures above are as relayed by the Venture channel, which does not link the original research, and the bank's assumptions on pricing and ramp timing are not independently verifiable from that relay. Price targets are opinions, not disclosures.

Sources: Venture Capital, 25 September 2026