Six Quiet Days Without an Auction Is Not Proof the Forex Market Can Stand on Its Own

The National Bank of Ethiopia held its indicative rate near 160.87 Br to the dollar through a week in which no auction was held, with the average commercial bank quotation 0.47pc above the central bank and Oromia Bank's 2.48pc higher, Addis Fortune reported.

That stability is notable precisely because nothing was propping it up. It is also, as the paper argues, close to meaningless on its own: six quiet days cannot prove the market was standing unaided.

The spread was wide enough to trade — on paper

On the quoted rates, buying dollars at Global Bank and selling them to Oromia Bank would have returned 1.26pc gross before costs. Addis Fortune is careful to call this hypothetical, and the reasons are the whole story: availability, eligibility, fees and timing could each block the trade.

A 1.26pc spread that nobody can execute is not an arbitrage. It is evidence that the advertised rates are not clearing prices.

What would actually settle the question

Three numbers would, and none of them is published:

• the dollars actually traded, rather than the rates advertised
• the effective rate after bonuses, which is not the posted rate
• whether ordinary customers can obtain foreign currency at all at the quoted price

The third is the one that decides whether an importer can open a letter of credit next week.

On the bonus point, the gap is visible in the same week's advertising. Berhan Bank promoted international transfers at 1 USD = 177.8948 Birr with an additional 10pc bonus on the day's rate; Telebirr promoted a 12pc bonus on inbound remittances. Those are remittance channels, not the interbank market, but they indicate what a dollar is worth to a bank that wants one — which is well above 160.87.

Open

The NBE has not published traded volumes for the week, and fact.et reported on 24 September that the quarterly auction programme has ended with no successor announced. With no scheduled central bank window and no volume disclosure, there is currently no published series against which the Birr's rate can be checked.

Sources: Addis Fortune, 25 September 2026, Addis Fortune, 24 September 2026, Tikvah Ethiopia, 25 September 2026