The Developing El Niño Is Now the Strongest on Record — and It Has Not Peaked

The El Niño now developing in the Pacific is the strongest on record, and it is still weeks away from its expected peak, scientists told the BBC — with weather effects already being felt around the world.

That is a short sentence with a long shadow for Ethiopia. Rainfall here is not a lifestyle variable. It sets the harvest, it sets hydropower output, and through both it sets the food and fuel import bill that the National Bank spends foreign currency defending.

What the record actually says

The claim is about strength and timing, not about any one country's forecast. An El Niño that is already record-breaking before it peaks means the Pacific signal driving global rainfall patterns over the coming season is larger than any previously measured — so the range of plausible outcomes downstream is wider than usual, in both directions.

Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with poor kiremt rains in Ethiopia's northern and central highlands and heavier rain in the south and southeast. That is a pattern, not a prediction, and it is not what the report published today says.

Why this is a business story

Three exposures run straight off the rain gauge:

• The harvest. Agriculture still carries most of Ethiopian employment, and a weak main season shows up in food prices within months.
• Power. A hydropower-dominated grid rations output when reservoirs run low, and industrial users are rationed first.
• Foreign currency. A bad crop year and a high fuel bill arrive together, and both are paid in dollars.

None of these is triggered by today's report. All of them are worth pricing now rather than in February.

Open

The report does not break out a forecast for the Horn of Africa, and no Ethiopian agency has published a seasonal outlook against it. Until the National Meteorology Institute says what this means for the belg season, the honest position is that the global signal is unusually large and the local consequence is unknown.

Sources: BBC Weather, 22 September 2026