Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall From 70pc to 23pc in Four Days

Market-implied odds of a US interest rate rise fell from 70 percent to 23 percent in four days after Federal Reserve officials hinted at a pause, according to the Venture Capital channel.

A forty-seven point move in under a week

Repricing of that size in that window is not a reaction to data. It is a reaction to language — officials signalling, and the market unwinding a position it had been holding with some confidence on Monday. The level matters less than the speed: a 47-point swing in four days means the market's conviction about the next move was thin to begin with.

Where it lands in Addis

Ethiopia does not set its interest rates in Washington, but it pays its import bills in dollars and services external debt in them. A Fed that pauses rather than tightens is, other things equal, a softer dollar and cheaper dollar funding — which shows up here as import costs, as the price at which the National Bank can rebuild reserves, and as the spread any Ethiopian borrower pays on external credit.

Other things are rarely equal, and a single swing in futures-implied odds is not a forecast. But for a treasurer deciding whether to cover a dollar payable now or in a month, the direction of travel this week was one way.

Open

The report does not name the instrument the odds are drawn from, the meeting they refer to, or the officials whose remarks moved them. Fact.et has not independently verified the figures, which are published by the channel without a cited source.

Sources: Venture Capital, 2 October 2026